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China enters the diplomatic area – does Beijing cease offensives in Ukraine

A year ago he started war in Ukraine. The world is no longer the same, and peace is not in sight. Across the globe, officials and analysts are predicting that the war is in fact just beginning. Entering the second year, tensions are increasing and more dangerous.

Historian and diplomat Dragan Bisenić said in the Morning Program that it is still too early to say what the definitive outcome of the conflict will be.

From the point of view of war goals, Bisenić believes, it can be said that Russia achieved a certain partial success, because until September of last year it ruled with about 20 percent of the territory, but that a change did occur when the Ukrainian army returned Kherson in a counter-offensive.

“Since then, there has been a lull on the front, there have been no significant movements either forward or backward, and that’s why everyone expects spring when one or both offensives are thought to follow. So, the Russian, which will try to penetrate further to the west of the country, and the Ukrainian , which it is assumed could be a counter-offensive either to the south or to the east.

In any case, Bisenić points out, the damages caused by this conflict are enormous, around 150 billion dollars in direct damages to infrastructure and various facilities.

“There are some encouraging details”

When it comes to possible peace talks, Bisenić says there are several encouraging details.

“Yesterday, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said a couple of sentences that indicate that both the United States of America and Russia are actually taking into account what the other side’s reaction will be. It means that they are still calculating and counting on each other,” noted Bisenić.

He pointed out that the visit of US President Joseph Biden to Kyiv could not have taken place without Moscow’s consent and security guarantees.

“It is possible that the Chinese proposal will forestall the assumed offensives”

China released a 12-point document in which he presents his position on the war in Ukraine in detail and calls for an end to hostilities and peace negotiations.

Bisenić says that China has avoided all conflicts, that it considers this war dangerous for its national interests.

Chinese President Xi Jinping’s address is expected today, and Bisenić points out that when a superpower like China appears with its proposal, then everyone must seriously raise their eyebrows and listen to what it is about.

He believes that China would not allow itself to enter into an adventure that would end in failure.

“I think there are certainly much stronger foundations behind that than there were with other countries. We will see very soon what the real reactions are to that Chinese proposal. I don’t believe that anyone will do it by rejecting that Chinese proposal altogether. It is possible that the Chinese proposal will prevent both of these assumed military offensives in the spring, and that would actually be the best outcome,” says Bisenić.

Surlić: Neither side wants any kind of peace

Assistant professor at the Faculty of Political Sciences, Stefan Surlić, in a guest appearance in RTS’s Dnevnik, said that what is currently happening on the front line indicates that neither side wants any kind of peace and that the conflicts continue.

“Direct confrontations, conflicts of much greater intensity, offensives, counter-offensives are announced,” added Surlić.

When it comes to Moscow’s expected spring offensive, Surlić says that it can be concluded that Russia wants to establish a line that is identified with the borders of the region that it has declared as part of its territory.

“Based on Putin’s speech, we can conclude that only the territory guarantees Russia a better negotiating position and the achievement of its goals. Whether it will succeed in this is a big question. A major offensive is being announced, but we see on the ground that that line on moves the field very slowly,” says Surlić.

“China can present itself as a global mediator”

Commenting on China’s 12-point proposal on a ceasefire and return to the negotiating table, Surlić assesses that China has a great interest in participating in the negotiation process and that it can present itself as a global mediator in this conflict, which is presented as a conflict between Russia and the West.

“It is not in her interest to defeat Russia in Ukraine, because then she would be left alone on the chessboard geopolitically, and in that context it should be understood that China wants to abandon the policy of non-interference and take a position as an active global actor. China is attractive at the moment, because it is the only can provide the security guarantees required by Russia on the territory of Ukraine and be a guarantor of the peace agreement and be a counterweight to the interests of the West in Ukraine,” says Surlić.

What is the problem, he notes, is whether the West will allow it, because they see that there is some Sino-Russian axis, they perceive China as a challenger.

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